What makes a candidate credible?

Michael Moore was not very happy with my characterization of his candidacy as “not credible.” I don’t blame him. But I should explain what I meant.

First of all, I want to make it perfectly clear that what I consider credible is quite different from what the delegates as a whole mean. Henceforth I’m going to talk about the latter. Given the number of votes I wield, my personal opinion of a candidate really matters very little in the scheme of things.

The best way to define “credibility” is to look at the common characteristics of those candidates who have done well in past elections. One in particular stands out. With the exception of candidates for one office, candidates who have made a respectable showing in AFM elections have almost always been executive officers (ie, President, Secretary-Treasurer, or similar such position) of medium-size or large locals.

The one exception is the office of AFM Secretary-Treasurer. Several former S/Ts (Florence Nelson, Steve Sprague) were AFM staffers. They might also have been local officers at some point in their careers, but the most important part of their resume (and the way the delegates got to know them) was the staff position. I think this speaks to the fact that the S/T position is widely, albeit tacitly, viewed as a kind of uber-staff position, with a vote on the IEB as a bonus.

It seems to be hard, or perhaps impossible, to run for President or Vice President without having served as an at-large IEB member first. No doubt there have been exceptions, but I can’t think of any.

The bylaws require that the Vice President from Canada be Canadian. But it appears that Canadians generally don’t run for any other positions, So perhaps being Canadian is a disqualification for being “credible” for any office other than Canadian VP. I don’t know why that should be. (Wayne Morris made a respectable showing for an IEB position in 2005, but he doesn’t seem inclined to repeat the experience this year.)

So that leaves the question of what makes a candidate for an at-large IEB position “credible.” First is the local officer thing, of course – that seems to be an near-absolute requirement to make a respectable showing. The second-most important factor is simply being a familiar face to the delegates. That requires attendance at several conventions at a minimum, and most candidates will try to travel to regional conferences in an election year as well. It also helps to be noticed at conventions, although potential candidates have to be very careful how they’re noticed. Taking positions on issues that matter is liable simply to piss off potential voters.

“Good ol’ boy”-ness is also helpful. There have been a few AFM officers who’ve made a career based on nothing but that. But it’s not essential; there are many successful candidates whom no one would consider “good ol’ boys (think of Richard Totusek, Bill Moriarity, and Ken Shirk – to say nothing of Tammy Kirk.) Having a significant AFM figure act as a mentor can also be useful.

Equally interesting is what doesn’t matter when it comes to credibility. A good musical resume certainly doesn’t hurt (and there are some surprising, and impressive, musical careers amongst the candidates – who knew that Erwin Price played with both Philly and Pittsburg?). Endorsements don’t seem to matter much, although they can clarify where a candidate is coming from. Candidates’ own campaign pieces matter hardly at all. And the little trinkets and party favors that are distributed by candidates at the Convention matter even less.

So let’s see how this works in practice.

Candidates for President

• Tom Lee was Secretary-Treasurer in DC and an at-large IEB officer when he was elected VP; a credible candidate for every position he’s run for.
• Hal Espinosa was President of Local 47 when he was elected to the IEB; also credible.

Candidates for Secretary-Treasurer

• Sam Folio had been on the IEB before running (unsuccessfully) for President and (successfully) for S/T; credible
• Michael Moore is not a local officer and has never been on the IEB; not credible
• Quentin Soranto: officer of the Westchester County NY local; small local, not well-known to delegates; not credible

Candidates For IEB

• Dan Cerveny; S/T of a smallish local and not very well known to delegates; marginally credible
• Ray Hair; president of medium-size local and current IEB member; credible
• Billy Linneman: S/T in Nashville and has served on major Convention committees: credible
• Tina Morrison: president of a smallish local but someone who’s known to the delegates; credible
• Barbara Owens: president of a large local; credible
• Joe Parente: current IEB member and president of Philly; credible
• Erwin Price; was an executive officer at 802 (thought currently isn’t) and has been to a number of conventions. Marginally credible; very credible if he’s seen as the 802 candidate.
• Vince Trombetta: VP of LA; credible
• Hayden Wayne: S/T in Poughkeepsie NY; not well-known to delegates: not credible (but apparently a very active and recorded composer, at least according to Wikipedia.)

I’d be very very surprised if any of the candidates I’ve marked as “not credible” make a decent showing in these elections.

Comments

[Reformer]

(Michael Troy Moore here)

I am glad you have made this post and stated why you think a candidate is not credible or is credible.

This is a step towards better understanding each other and what we each think, it moves closer to debate and providing more choices and "options" for consideration in the AFM elections.

While agree in part I must offer my thoughts as well,

The AFM business as usual and the old mind set "you can not win" because of old practices and that "is the way it is" is defeatism!

We are better than that and must move forward.

That only candidates from a certain back ground in the AFM will ever stand a chance is what got the AFM to where it is today.

In some ways it is like going out and buying a Ford Pinto or Explorer, we are going to get the same thing over and over again because those choices are not reliable, those cars going to do the same thing over and over which is fail, explode on impact or flip over with out warning.

In each case it is for the same reasons, a "design flaw", excluding the few who actually do what they were made to do.

I agree visibility helps big time with getting people to vote for a certain person or product, but do you want to eat at McDonalds? Denny's or a Morton's of Chicago-Ruth Chris's Steak House?

Mcdonald's and Denny's does mega advertising and are well known, where as a sit down meal restaurant is of a higher quality food/service, uses better products because the owners or operators have a sense of pride and a vision to be the best at what they do.

The 4 star restaurant does little or no advertising (perhaps because they are really working on the quaitly of what they sell rather than the AD's for junk) and even yet there are some restaurants that are totally unknown until you go there and meet them and wonder why everyone is not there?

While the fast food is cheap and might even taste good in the short term, it is garbage and poison.

Thomas F. Lee & Sam Foilo are fast food, your going to get the same thing over and over again when you run with them, it is easy to swallow them up and move along with out thinking then hours later... you wonder why you do not feel good.

It is because you took the easy, convenient fast food option and you digested a Lee & Folio value meal.

Your gonna pay later, but it felt good at the time to go with what you know.

Look at it this way, Mcdonalds everybody knows about, there is no "visible risk" you get instant gratification, no mess and your on your way and it was cheap, if you ordered a kids meal? you got a happy meal toy made by sweat shop girls & boys.

Now if your hear a rumor about this great little restaurant, food is the best, service is top, but it is a little out of your way to go to and find.

You might even be a little nervous about the menu that you may have to the trouble to read what is on it and you might order something and not like it?

That is fear, fear for a number of reasons, it is shaking up your paradigm and you fear that you may find it was a waste of your time and money.

On the other hand, not taking the chance and looking into it and listening to that stranger who recommended it to you, may rob you of a discovery that would improve your life and the others you recommend it to.

I think if there is a stereo type of who can win and who can't? then we are played into a mind set that will forever "DOOM and DESTORY" positive change before it ever has the chance to grown.

The convention vote for officers is a panel job interview and all applicants should have a fair and impartial review of their work record and from where ever they come from.

I come from both the AFM and the United Food and Commercial Workers Union, my opponents do there best to "water down" my resume with the UFCW and portray my time and work there as non-compatible and irrelevant to seeking a elected position at the AFM.

It doesn't matter what Tom Lee & Sam Folio say or think about me, they are 2 workers who have a dismal track record and zero productively, their employment with the AFM should be terminated.

The Delegates as responsible managers of the AFM are charged with a "Job review every 2 years of officers" and should review all candidates resumes, look into and "meet" with every candidate known, little known or unknown to them and make an informed choice to keep current employee-officers of the AFM or choose another candidate who has applied for the job.

It might take a 5 to 30 interview with each candidates for each delegate, but I want you to think of the positive change and new future the AFM can have if each delegate steps forward and shakes the hand of each candidate and asks a few questions?

Take a moment and the risk of reaching out to all candidates, the delegates may find the key to saving the union from a unknown or little know face within the AFM.

Just like that little known restaurant, that McDonalds does want you to ever know about.

www.MichaelTroyMoore.com